Gardner Minshew has one of the weaker arms in the league, so this is proof that exceptional deep passing is not about arm strength but rather accuracy, timing and anticipation. Drew Brees (13) Tyrod Taylor, like Smith, wasn't spectacular in accuracy but took outrageously good care of the football despite playing with arguably the worst receiving corps in the league, poor pass protection, and the second-highest rate of tight windows in the league. Elos spread: Baltimore -3. Derek Carr's quality of play takes a massive drop when he is not given clean pockets. Everybody wants explosive plays in the NFL. Do you have a sports website? Trevor Siemian trailed him with the second-highest rate, which is not surprising considering how poor the Denver Broncos' offensive line is. On 84 attempts. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.). From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. Washington needs Haskins to take a step forward in this area, just as the Giants do with Daniel Jones. Even Mason Rudolph, who only started eight games, had six more deep shots than Garoppolo did all year. Making that throw under both scenarios adds two points to make the throw worth eight total points. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. That results in the quarterback's efficiency score. Or 1257 yards for 60 attempts and then 13.7 yrds/attempt in the remaining 26 attempts. Career Stats. Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest, you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling. Only four quarterbacks had more big-time throws on deep shots than Mayfields 23, but those plays resulted in just seven touchdowns. Only Wilson and Watson had more big-time throws on deep throws than Rodgers did last season, and he did that with only one receiver, Davante Adams, who truly has 100% of Rodgers trust. After Cooks, the Saints traded for Ted Ginn, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. Only six quarterbacks went the entire season without throwing a single inaccurate completion: Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Jimmy Garoppolo. ESPN profiled Breess offseason attempts to maintain his arm strength back in August. (Even for Smith in 2014, 5.4 percent of his passes traveled at least 20 yards. Again, rankings out of 35 are in parentheses. Brees has proven throughout his career, and in the 2011 regular season, that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when it comes . (So does Taysom Hill.). Stephen A. Smith details why Lamar Jackson is better positioned for a Super Bowl run than Aaron Rodgers. Both young players were among the worst deep passers of the ball despite plenty of attempts, which is a big reason the Steelers offense didnt look anything like itself last year. Javascript is required for the selection of a player. He actually carries the No. Ryan Tannehills arrival last season changed the teams fortunes and transformed the Titans offense. While Winston went deep on 15.8% of his dropbacks (fourth), Fitzpatrick was all the way down in 16th at 12.9%. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. 243. Maybe Kinsley appraises film clinically, without being influenced by personal (or other) biases, but how are we supposed to know? Despite his lack of arm strength and disinclination to throw any deeper than 20 yards downfield, Brees has added value through sheer accuracy and ability to read defenses. TD. 80,358. Only Tyrod Taylor lost completions to receiver error more often than Brissett did. Last year, he was 0-for-5 with an interception. I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws. But watching him play, he doesnt seem convinced that it worked. (This is where the "elite" jokes come in.). He is the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history. So he is not only as productive as Brisset but additionally gets you another 650 yards at a great yards per attemp rate. Suddenly, Smith was throwing the ball downfield more consistently. After Henderson, the team drafted Kenny Stills, who ran a 4.38 40-yard dash. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. See our list of forfeits and vacated games for more details. Thats especially concerning given that he had some pretty legit receivers to play with. Jimmy Garoppolo was the most accurate quarterback under pressure, making an accurate pass on every single pressure play on downfield attempts. The only other comprehensive accuracy charting I know of is Cian Faheys Pre-Snap Reads books (if you know of more, I love this stuff so let me know). (Ed. Outside of that, though, his accuracy to every other distance was dismal. Your bad arguments and bad attitude undermine a potentially valid point. Steals Per Game. From a Colts fan perspective, I don't remember their being complaints about Brissett's deep ball. Drew Brees has a great deep ball, but he is limited. And after a long stretch of finishing last or second to last in critical defensive stats, New Orleanss defense is actually capable of winning the team games now. Saints' Michael Thomas seemingly trolled Drew Brees on Twitter during NFC Championship Game Thomas' tweets infer that Brees not being able to throw the deep ball hurt the Saints By. Drew Lock is 6-4 (193 cm) tall. Prescott's sophomore season has gotten a reputation as being a step down from his rookie campaign, but his downfield accuracy was actually terrific. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by ramirez. Brissett hit 51.5 percent of his deep throws (21+ yards), 16.1 percent above the league average (4th highest overall), but too often those big plays were ruined by one of his receivers. Who has the most career 150 rushing yard games? Get the latest news, stats, videos, highlights and more about quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. For example, let's say a quarterback threw 75 passes downfield, and on 56 of those passes he had a clean pocket. (Was there THAT big of a difference in 15/16 yard "hard to tell" discrepancies? If that doesnt put into context how we evaluate quarterbacks at draft time, nothing will. Stephen A. Smith details why Lamar Jackson is better positioned for a Super Bowl run than Aaron Rodgers. How much can Joel Embiid give the Sixers against the Celtics? All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. Criticized harshly for a weak arm, the 41-year-old almost never throws the. In comparison to previous years when he was a downfield passing master, Roethlisberger's decision-making was awful last year, constantly making questionable throws to the point where he looked like he was chucking the ball up regardless if the receiver was open or not. If we scale it by 39/22 that is 1257 yards. The Kings had no answer for Steph, who dropped 50 in a record-breaking Game 7 outburst to propel Golden State to a tantalizing second-round matchup against the Lakers. John Kinsley is on Twitter @brickwallblitz. He forced the second-most inaccurate completions with 12, and Marvin Jones caught seven of those passes. If you look at the situation rate splits, Brissett threw a relatively low proportion of his deep passes from clean pockets and into open windows, and threw a relatively high proportion of his deep passes under pressure and into tight windows. Watson had the third-highest rate of clean pockets, the 11th-highest rate of play-action, the 11th-lowest rate of tight windows, and the 10th-highest rate of open windows. He had zero inaccurate completions, and his accuracy was extremely successful against pressure and into tight windows. Or write about sports? drew brees career playoff stats Drew Brees had a passer rating of 97.1 with 5,366 yards, 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 18 games in the playoffs in his career. Its the appendage that has carried Brees through a spectacular 20-year NFL career, earning him a Super Bowl championship and the all-time records for passing yards, completions, and completion percentage. But in the past, Brees did have the most air yards. Use without license or authorization is expressly prohibited. Even then, however, Smith wasn't the most surprisingly good downfield passer of 2017. Making it under pressure or in a tight window adds one point to make it seven. All 259 picks are in. Sometimes the only way to have chance at a completion, due to the coverage, is to force the receiver to adjust to the ball. Question, Comment, Feedback, or Correction? Use promo code, C.J. Even then, his accuracy in that area was still above average. Watson has the arm to make special deep passes, and while he made a lot of big plays, only three passers threw more interceptions on deep shots than the five Watson managed over the regular season. I wonder how his splits look over the course of the season. Winston, Prescott & Brissett ranked 6, 7, & 7 spots better with John (and 8.6, 12.3, 14.2% better, or 3.7, 7.4, & 9.3% if you subtract the 4.9% average increase). ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Breess 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020. You don't expect a top receiver to let down his quarterback that many times. Best Known For: NFL quarterback Drew Brees . -- Aaron Schatz). Allen needs to find the touch to go with that cannon because its frankly inexcusable that a player with his kind of arm talent is this bad at passing deep. Although if you give the QB credit for throwing up jump balls to a very good receiver, you're essentially crediting the QB for having a good receiver when the whole point is trying to isolate the QB from his surroundings. Keenum was #1 in DYAR. Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar even named a specific statistic after Smith, measuring how aggressive or conservative quarterbacks were on third down. Though he didn't have the lowest accuracy percentage, the inaccurate completions, interceptions, and dropped picks severely lowered Keenum's efficiency score. Jacoby Brissett has never been an aggressive quarterback, but lack of aggression combined with inefficiency when you actually take the shot is a first-class ticket to a backup role. Even within the subset of deep passes, it would appear that Brissett is throwing a high number of deep balls that are even less likely to be completed than average. The "points" system here seems completely arbitrary. His accuracy was 15th with good pass protection, but was second-to-last under pressure. Elo likes the Ravens at home here, giving them a 60 percent chance at the victory, but the teams are pretty evenly matched, and it should be an excellent defensive battle. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. Minshew led the NFL in passer rating on deep targets a season ago and was one of the leagues best in terms of accuracy, too. Amazingly, Brett Hundley ranked eighth in accuracy on throws of 20 to 24 yards. Learning How to Successfully Predict the Top NFL Prospects. Failed to recognize receivers running wide open down the seam.". ex: Kirk Cousins had pretty close accurate totals (32 vs 30 here), but had 17(!) Heres a pass from 2010 where Brees tosses the ball 57 yards to his all-time favorite deep threat, Devery Henderson: The Saints have long thrived on the underneath passing game, but thats always been helped by the fact that New Orleans consistently pairs Brees with a speedster who can beat defenses over the top. 4th in 1999, Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. His arm strength has steadily declined in recent seasons, and last year, his passes traveled shorter distances than any other NFL quarterback, with an intended air yards per target of 6.4 yards. Explore Properties. PoY Transporting him into an offense with some of the best deep targets in football should see him catapulted back into the top 10 in 2020. Wilson had the second-most completions on these passes last season, trailing only Jameis Winston, and Wilson also tied for the second-most deep touchdowns. Mitchell Trubisky is a work in progress, but he finished 13th in overall accuracy. So here's how each area of the field is handled in that regard: One additional point will be handed out if the accurate pass was delivered under pressure or in a tight window (where the quarterback has much less margin for error). I love detailed breakdowns like this (boy, did I find this way late - guess this is for anyone else who also reads this late). but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. But the statistical evidence that Brees is either unwilling or unable to throw the ball deep is overwhelming. 18.8 yards/attemp. Accuracy on off-balance throws doesn't mean too much considering the small sample size, but DeShone Kizer and Cam Newton (who had a great year passing the deep ball despite his health) ranked at the top. I applaud the time you put into this, and I am not suggesting my few minutes of research trump your stats, but claiming Brissett is the most accurate deep passer in the NFL is a tough row to hoe. 7,142 Drew Brees 6,300 Brett Favre NFL All-Time Career QB Rushing Leader 6,109 Michael Vick 5,628 Cam Newton 4,982 Randall Cunningham As talented as quarterbacks are throwing the ball, there are also a select few that were able to run with it as well. Hed go on to lead the league in deep throw passing yards four more times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012), completions on deep throws four times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012) and touchdowns on deep throws seven times, including six straight years from 2008 to 2013. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. Drew Brees had a passer rating of 97.1 with 5,366 yards, 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 18 games in the playoffs in his career. If you have a receiver that wins the jump-ball regularly, then the QB SHOULD throw jump balls to him, he's an idiot if he doesn't. Peyton Manning vs Drew Brees Statistical Comparison. . Criticized harshly for a weak arm, the 41-year-old almost never throws the ball deep anymore, instead tossing short passes to running back Alvin Kamara and various receivers not named Michael Thomas. Last year, that fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest mark of his career and second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. Case Keenum was the least efficient downfield passer, surprising since he led the league in overall passing DVOA. Despite having the lowest average depth of target in the NFL last year, Brees thrived. The data, which are the film analyses themselves, are reduced to a number and therefore indisputable. Thanks to PFF Premium Stats 2.0 which is available with a PFF ELITE subscription we can see how quarterbacks perform in this critical area each season, but lets go a step deeper and rank those quarterbacks by PFF grade on deep passes, rather than by any production-based deep passing metric that is heavily influenced by the receiver at the catch point and the coverage the ball was thrown into. Does this tell us anything the respective DVOA splits don't already? Get the latest updated stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. He was the first player on the list to complete under 30% of his deep pass attempts and had one of the lowest yards per attempt figures in the league. Maybe he's favoring any player in a white jersey, we cannot possibly know without more information. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. He forced the highest amount of inaccurate completions with 15, and constantly threw the ball to defenders, getting away with dropped interceptions. He was also fourth on play-action, only behind Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning. As you may have guessed from Jacoby Brissett's high accuracy percentage, his accuracy to all distances was just absurd. Big shock coming from a Bill Belichick-coached offense, I know. Efficiency Score uses a points system that rewards accurate passes and docks points away for inaccurate completions (plays where a pass is inaccurate but caught thanks to a receiver who bails out the quarterback), interceptions where the quarterback is at fault, and dropped interceptions where the quarterback is at fault. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Had several overthrows when tasked with deep throws down sideline versus man coverage. Penalty Disciplined. Heading into the 2019 season, we thought Carson Wentz might have the best receiving corps in the league to throw to. had a passer rating of 97.1 with 8,695 yards, 54 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in 29 games against the. Do you have a blog? Please note that the four most important stats to consider are accuracy percentage (ACC%), Inaccurate Completions (INACC CMP), Accurate Incompletions (ACC INCMP), and Efficiency Score. How each team ranks through Week 7 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions. Birth date: January 15, 1979. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. We would say that 74.7 percent of said quarterback's passes would have had clean pockets. Allen can get the ball as deep as he wants it pretty much any time he wants to, and though he dialed it back in Year 2, he still went deep at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints is having one of the most interesting quarterback seasons in recent memory. The person most acutely aware of this decline seems to be Brees. Join our linker program. Now Hell Face LeBron and the Lakers. The success levels for other short-tossing quarterbacks have varied. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. In his defense, it wasnt all Goff, as the Rams had one of the worst offensive lines in football, and Goff often just didnt have the time to let deep plays develop. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints 48.4% completion percentage, 13.0 yards per attempt, 107.2 Passer Rating Few players throw a better deep ball than Drew Brees when he's at his best, but as he ages, his effectiveness and frequency of deep passing has declined. Falcons. He covers the Tennessee Titans for Music City Miracles on SB Nation, and also writes for the Minnesota Vikings website Purple PTSD. There has been a lot of numerical analysis of many parts of football and especially of quarterbacking, but there has generally been very little dedicated to analyzing downfield passes. Is Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray the best high school QB from Texas? ), Fewest air yards per pass attempt and smallest share of attempts that went 20+ yards in the air for qualified NFL passers, 2006-2020. also new for 2017-18? That and more from a full weekend of picks. Drew Brees threw for 465 yards in the Saints' 41-38 victory over the Panthers, setting an NFL record with the 15th 400-yard passing game of his career. (Tannehills average pass travels nearly 2 yards farther than Breess, though, because he seldom targets receivers behind the line of scrimmage.) The league has known that for as far back as anybody can remember, and in todays game, the most reliable way of producing them is by throwing the ball deep. His adjusted yards for 22 completions is (674 + 4*20 - 1*45) = 709 yards. If the pass was delivered while under pressure AND in a tight window, two bonus points are rewarded. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Brissett was known for his poor deep passing in college. @Neil_Paine, NFL (976 posts) Drew Brees Career Stats | StatMuse Drew Brees Authentic voice 6'0", 209 lbs Saints QB PCT 67.7 YDS 80,358 TD 571 RATE 98.7 Career Overview Stats Game Log Splits Bio Explore Drew Brees rookie season stats When was Drew Brees drafted? Get the latest career stats for Drew Brees of the on CBS Sports CBSSports.com 247Sports .
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